So, I started this morning thinking that I was going to do a top 10 prospect list for the Nats, it's not real hard to do they have a very solid top 5-6 that don't take much thought. But something happened to my train of thought on the way to the depot (ha, see what I did there, a play on Camden Depot). The Orioles shook up their scouting department in a big, controversial way and sidetracked me all morning. So I decided I'd write about the impact of good scouting and how that impacts the Nationals.
Building a winning team comes from identifying the right talent at the amateur level, and then supplementing the pieces that don't pan out later on. The more you hit on in the draft, means the less you have to overpay for later. When the Nationals brought in Mike Rizzo, they started a plan in motion that involved an overhaul of the scouting department, and a shift towards spending the money it takes to build through the draft. A couple terrible years on the field translated to a couple of the best draft picks of the past 20 years, and the willingness to pay later in the draft is reaping benefits for a team on the rise.
Recent draft picks of note:
Aaron Crow - We all know how this went. He didn't sign, drafted by KC, has turned into a legit ML closer. However, looking more into things, with the pick the Nats got for not signing him, they drafted Drew Storen who has been a ML closer for more than a year already and for MUCH less money.
Stephen Strasburg - Shouldnt' have to mention this. Slam dunk pick, a superstar in the making, and then picks up a dreaded Tommy John surgery along the way. Seems to have come back strong, and even down a couple MPH he is still better than most of MLB starters.
Drew Storen - See above. Signability pick, has turned into a very capable MLB closer.
Bryce Harper - The SI cover boy himself, amazing power potential and moving through the minors and a very fast clip. Looks to be the future of offense in DC.
Sammy Solis - Solid lefty putting up good stats in the minors and could be a back end starter, solid RP or great trade bait.
AJ Cole - A personal favorite of mine, picked up in the 4th round and is still a work in progress but has start potential. Still a bit of a 2-pitch guy, but if his change-up improves, he could be a really good #2/3 pitcher in DC.
Anthony Rendon - Considered the top talent in the 2011 draft, injury concerns dropped him into the Nationals lap, who wisely gobbled him up. Will start his career as a 3B, but a possible shift to 2B or a trade seems on the horizon with Zimmerman firmly entrenched.
Alex Meyer - Very solid late 1st rounder who was projected in the top 10 most of the year.
Brian Goodwin - Looks like a CF of the future, great tools and very coachable.
Matt Purke - In talks for the top 5 most of the year, injuries dropped him late into 2011, loss of velocity and a disaster small sample in the AFL have people asking questions.
Matt Skole - 3B for Georgia Tech was a sleeper of mine who had a good debut in the NY/P league, someone to keep an eye on.
While this may seem like a solid top 10 list in the making, it's actually just my favorite picks of theirs since 2009. In 3 years, they have infused a HUGE amount of talent into a team and this is the biggest reason why the Nationals are a sleeper pick for many analysts this year.
Still a few pieces away, this list of players gives them plenty of tools to trade for the pieces they need. If they strike out in FA, they can still get in on the trade market and make a big splash and the whole reason they can do that? Scouting and selecting the right players year in and out.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Is this thing on?
So as Jon previewed the other day, the Winter Meetings were this week in Dallas. For those of you who don't know, it's a giant meeting with Major and Minor league officials, agents, players and MLB staff as far as the eye can see. For those of us who love the offseason, trades, free agent signings and hot-stove speculation, it's like a three day stay in Toys R Us for a kid. The Washington Nationals however, must have missed their invitation, it was very quiet out of the DC camp this year.
Despite rumors that they were in on Fielder, CJ Wilson, and Mark Buehrle, they came up empty. I thought Wilson was a great fit here, getting someone to balance Strasburg, and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation would have been a huge boon for the Nationals. Rumors abounded left and right about a possible trade for a CF, even targeting Adam Jones of the Orioles (which I suggested a few months back in a swap for perhaps Zimmermann, but without signing another frontline SP, that isn't going to happen.)
Now the Nats find them in the same position they were before the meetings, looking for a SP, CF, lead-off hitter and some depth. Talk emerged today about potentially shifting Werth to CF and opening up RF for Harper to start the season, but starting his clock at 19 years old could prove to be very expensive for the team down the road.
There are still a few lesser targets out there that make some sense for the Nats, Oswalt perhaps, who they have been talking to. Cespedes is still out there, and makes some sense here, however his cost has been skyrocketing with more teams getting in the mix, he could be a great gamble for the club though, especially if they don't end up signing any of the top tier FA. Paul Maholm could be a good fit here too, I think he fits better in the NL, and this could be a good home park for him. Two other guys that could make sense for SP depth are Brad Penny and Chris Young.
There are moves out there to be made, and with young talent still developing in the minors, adding without subtracting might be the best course for this season in order to give the young guys more chance to develop and see what they have. With Rendon, Harper, Cole and others getting some seasoning they are positioning themselves to contend for more than just a year or two, they just need to supplement their core with some good role players and veteran pieces and we could be seeing something really special come into play. As DC has shown numerous times recently (yeah I mean you Capitals), if you win, they will come. Once the Nats start winning they will become the trendy thing in town and the attendance and revenue will follow. Before that happens though, they need to start actually making something happen instead of just talking about it. The Angels were becoming the bridesmaids of MLB free agency always in the final talks, but never landing the prize...then they sign Wilson and Pujols within hours of each other. No one is thinking of them as 2nd place in anything anymore.
I hope Rizzo asked Santa for an alarm for Christmas this year, because he needs to wake up and make some things happen before it's too late.
Despite rumors that they were in on Fielder, CJ Wilson, and Mark Buehrle, they came up empty. I thought Wilson was a great fit here, getting someone to balance Strasburg, and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation would have been a huge boon for the Nationals. Rumors abounded left and right about a possible trade for a CF, even targeting Adam Jones of the Orioles (which I suggested a few months back in a swap for perhaps Zimmermann, but without signing another frontline SP, that isn't going to happen.)
Now the Nats find them in the same position they were before the meetings, looking for a SP, CF, lead-off hitter and some depth. Talk emerged today about potentially shifting Werth to CF and opening up RF for Harper to start the season, but starting his clock at 19 years old could prove to be very expensive for the team down the road.
There are still a few lesser targets out there that make some sense for the Nats, Oswalt perhaps, who they have been talking to. Cespedes is still out there, and makes some sense here, however his cost has been skyrocketing with more teams getting in the mix, he could be a great gamble for the club though, especially if they don't end up signing any of the top tier FA. Paul Maholm could be a good fit here too, I think he fits better in the NL, and this could be a good home park for him. Two other guys that could make sense for SP depth are Brad Penny and Chris Young.
There are moves out there to be made, and with young talent still developing in the minors, adding without subtracting might be the best course for this season in order to give the young guys more chance to develop and see what they have. With Rendon, Harper, Cole and others getting some seasoning they are positioning themselves to contend for more than just a year or two, they just need to supplement their core with some good role players and veteran pieces and we could be seeing something really special come into play. As DC has shown numerous times recently (yeah I mean you Capitals), if you win, they will come. Once the Nats start winning they will become the trendy thing in town and the attendance and revenue will follow. Before that happens though, they need to start actually making something happen instead of just talking about it. The Angels were becoming the bridesmaids of MLB free agency always in the final talks, but never landing the prize...then they sign Wilson and Pujols within hours of each other. No one is thinking of them as 2nd place in anything anymore.
I hope Rizzo asked Santa for an alarm for Christmas this year, because he needs to wake up and make some things happen before it's too late.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Kicking Off the Winter Meetings
Ted Lerner has quite a bit of money, Washington has potentially large streams of revenue, and the team appears willing to prime the pump with premier free agent talent.. The primary obligations of the team are Jayson Werth's potential train wreck of a contract and the solid contract associated with Ryan Zimmerman. They account for 25 MM this year and 30 MM next year. The club has a great deal of flexibility in their payroll.
However, with this flexibility the club has been largely saying no to many free agents. Jose Reyes was not sought after. Prince Fielder has been placed on the back burner. Mark Buerhle has also been dropped off the radar. I am not entirely sure where the Nats are going with this. The team is likely only a couple moves away from the playoffs and it is not clear how they are expecting to make that movement. The Braves are stuck in neutral, the Phillies' team is strong but the window is closing, the Mets are coming undone, and the Marlins will need a couple more pieces. The NL East is ripe for the taking. The Nationals are in striking distance.
Some of the improvement on the team will come from within. Several components of the pitching staff should be able to contribute more this year. Even if Strasburg loses a few mph, he is good enough to provide mid to top rotation value. Werth is not as base as he was last year. The team actually has reasonable options everywhere in the field except SS, LF, and CF. They could also use another starting pitcher. Those are the areas where they will need to focus their resources.
Yoenis Cespedes has been tied close to the Nationals. This would be a great fit for them. He is likely to be at worst serviceable in center field and that is a need. They would also need to improve upon Bernadina as a backup center fielder in case Cespedes needs time in the minors. Andruw Jones could be a decent plan B. Mike Morse might be fine in left with LaRoche going back to 1B healthy. There simply are no viable ways to improve SS unless they choose to spend big on Jimmy Rollins. For pitchers, we will see how things shake up.
Let us hope for an interesting Winter Meeting.
However, with this flexibility the club has been largely saying no to many free agents. Jose Reyes was not sought after. Prince Fielder has been placed on the back burner. Mark Buerhle has also been dropped off the radar. I am not entirely sure where the Nats are going with this. The team is likely only a couple moves away from the playoffs and it is not clear how they are expecting to make that movement. The Braves are stuck in neutral, the Phillies' team is strong but the window is closing, the Mets are coming undone, and the Marlins will need a couple more pieces. The NL East is ripe for the taking. The Nationals are in striking distance.
Some of the improvement on the team will come from within. Several components of the pitching staff should be able to contribute more this year. Even if Strasburg loses a few mph, he is good enough to provide mid to top rotation value. Werth is not as base as he was last year. The team actually has reasonable options everywhere in the field except SS, LF, and CF. They could also use another starting pitcher. Those are the areas where they will need to focus their resources.
Yoenis Cespedes has been tied close to the Nationals. This would be a great fit for them. He is likely to be at worst serviceable in center field and that is a need. They would also need to improve upon Bernadina as a backup center fielder in case Cespedes needs time in the minors. Andruw Jones could be a decent plan B. Mike Morse might be fine in left with LaRoche going back to 1B healthy. There simply are no viable ways to improve SS unless they choose to spend big on Jimmy Rollins. For pitchers, we will see how things shake up.
Let us hope for an interesting Winter Meeting.
Friday, December 2, 2011
2012 Nationals: A brief overview
Being a guy that focuses mostly on the rule 4 draft and prospects, I assumed my first entry would dig right in on that. There is so much to write about that I couldn't decide where to start, with all of the spending in the draft the past couple seasons and the excitement building in DC. Then I took a step back and realized maybe I should write about my personal view on the Nats first, since I am probably the exact demographic the team is looking for. I live about 10 miles from the White House, I have been a major student of the game, have played, and been following the Orioles closely since the early 90's.
Once rumors started flying that an MLB team was thinking about moving to DC and so close to home, you would think you would get excited to have a more true hometown team (Baltimore is 40 miles away). However, I actually cringed at the idea. This is not, and will never be a baseball town. DC is a football city first, and always will be, but it is a sports town, so there will always be some people to show up to games with the tag still on the team t-shirt they are wearing to pretend loyalty for a sport they don't even like. This group of people generally makes up 80% of all attendance for the Nationals right now. If you go to a game, there are more people in the stands in work clothes on their laptops, or their smart phones doing work than watching the game. This comes from a large corporate sponsorship in the DC area with companies that give free tickets to employees. While it puts people in the seats who may or may not actually be watching the game, it creates a very indifferent crowd which usually isn't sure when to cheer or jeer.
The stadium, while built in what us locals referred to a "don't ever go there" area is nice, there isn't a really bad seat in the house and much like New York, famous 3rd party eateries have been brought in to spice things up. Getting to and from can be an adventure because of the lack of parking at the stadium, but the metro that Baltimore lacks helps out with that.
As for the team itself, major strides in the right direction have been made for a couple years now. Young talent has been stockpiled: Strasburg, Harper, Zimmerman, Zimmermann, Rendon, Cole, Bernadina etc. and is beginning to be supplemented with big-name free agents: Werth, and rumors abound about Fielder and Wilson this offseason.
While there has been a stagnation in Baltimore that has gone on for 14 years, the Nationals seem to have gotten the memo and are building excitement. There are players worth buying a ticket to see, and hope that the team can win the division realistically. While I've never personally had any interest in the Nats up til now, my will to support the Orioles is growing weaker each horrible season, and the Nationals seem to know this and are trying to lure me away with promises of exciting players and playing for something after June.
While it is still a work in progress, at least there is real progress, enough to where 2012 or 2013 could be the year the Nationals emerge as a contending force. While a lot of the talk centers around the AL East and the spending that occurs, making it tough for rebuilding teams to ever get a foothold, one could say the same thing about the NL East. The Phillies are one of the top spending teams in baseball right now, with a rotation built to win. The Mets are starting a rebuilding phase, but they are one of the largest market teams in baseball, and will spend the money to get back in the race sooner than later. The Braves always seem to be in the hunt, through player development, even when you think they are going to be terrible they find a way into the wild-card race. Even the Marlins, the major-league feeder team for the rest of the league has a new stadium opening and is showing they want to spend money and get in the race.
I have no animosity towards the Nationals, and as the quality of product improves on the Anacostia, I find myself more and more interested.
Once rumors started flying that an MLB team was thinking about moving to DC and so close to home, you would think you would get excited to have a more true hometown team (Baltimore is 40 miles away). However, I actually cringed at the idea. This is not, and will never be a baseball town. DC is a football city first, and always will be, but it is a sports town, so there will always be some people to show up to games with the tag still on the team t-shirt they are wearing to pretend loyalty for a sport they don't even like. This group of people generally makes up 80% of all attendance for the Nationals right now. If you go to a game, there are more people in the stands in work clothes on their laptops, or their smart phones doing work than watching the game. This comes from a large corporate sponsorship in the DC area with companies that give free tickets to employees. While it puts people in the seats who may or may not actually be watching the game, it creates a very indifferent crowd which usually isn't sure when to cheer or jeer.
The stadium, while built in what us locals referred to a "don't ever go there" area is nice, there isn't a really bad seat in the house and much like New York, famous 3rd party eateries have been brought in to spice things up. Getting to and from can be an adventure because of the lack of parking at the stadium, but the metro that Baltimore lacks helps out with that.
As for the team itself, major strides in the right direction have been made for a couple years now. Young talent has been stockpiled: Strasburg, Harper, Zimmerman, Zimmermann, Rendon, Cole, Bernadina etc. and is beginning to be supplemented with big-name free agents: Werth, and rumors abound about Fielder and Wilson this offseason.
While there has been a stagnation in Baltimore that has gone on for 14 years, the Nationals seem to have gotten the memo and are building excitement. There are players worth buying a ticket to see, and hope that the team can win the division realistically. While I've never personally had any interest in the Nats up til now, my will to support the Orioles is growing weaker each horrible season, and the Nationals seem to know this and are trying to lure me away with promises of exciting players and playing for something after June.
While it is still a work in progress, at least there is real progress, enough to where 2012 or 2013 could be the year the Nationals emerge as a contending force. While a lot of the talk centers around the AL East and the spending that occurs, making it tough for rebuilding teams to ever get a foothold, one could say the same thing about the NL East. The Phillies are one of the top spending teams in baseball right now, with a rotation built to win. The Mets are starting a rebuilding phase, but they are one of the largest market teams in baseball, and will spend the money to get back in the race sooner than later. The Braves always seem to be in the hunt, through player development, even when you think they are going to be terrible they find a way into the wild-card race. Even the Marlins, the major-league feeder team for the rest of the league has a new stadium opening and is showing they want to spend money and get in the race.
I have no animosity towards the Nationals, and as the quality of product improves on the Anacostia, I find myself more and more interested.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Welcome to Our Exile
Exile on the Anacostia is a blog written by writers who primarily write about the Orioles, but will focus on the Washington Nationals here.
Why?
Every writer has their reasons.
Why?
Every writer has their reasons.
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