Since Les Expos moved to DC, the fan-base that has been alienated by one of the worst owners in sports 40 miles away (Baltimore) has been waiting for the losing years to give way to promise and growth. It looks like the wait is over...
The Edwin Jackson FA watch was nearing an end, with him supposedly weighing a one-year offer from BOS, a multi-year offer from BAL, and two possible other multi-year offers. Then comes the news that's he's agreed to a one-year deal, and people start typing the headline Jackson to BOS...er WHAT? He took a one-year deal, but in WAS??? Were they even looking for another pitcher with Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Lannan and Wang penciled into the rotation?? Well, now they've got 6 legit starters for 5 spots because they did indeed swoop in and sign Edwin Jackson to a one-year $8M deal on Thursday.
The rotation was already looking really good with a tough 1-2-3 punch, young and controllable, but now adding a 28 year old who has been around the league and has put up a sub-4.0 ERA splitting time between CHW and STL. Last year, in fact, the Cards don't win the WS without Jackson getting them there. Jackson has always been a little hit or miss, he will strike out 10, but walk 6 in the process, as illustrated by his no-hitter in 2010 while walking 8. A one year contract in a pitchers park for an up and coming young team is a good way to draw attention before UFA, however there is always risk, such as injury or ineffectiveness that could end up costing him money.
I think that it's a good deal for him, and provided healthy, he's setting himself up for the $10m/yr contract he wants next offseason. He'd be a nice consolation prize to a team missing out on Cain, Grienke, Marcum, Moon, or the other starters available, but that is a lot of competition for money next year, so time will tell if this backfires.
With a rotation of Strasburg-Gonzalez-Zimmerman-Jackson-Lannan/Wang/Detwiler they look like they are ready to hang with anyone in the East. A lineup of Ramos, LaRoche, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman, Morse, Werth and Harper could be good enough to make some noise, although there are still questions about if Harper is ready or not, I'd be surprised if he's not in the lineup by July.
By rolling out a promotion about taking back the park and not letting Phillies fans roll en masse into the stadium, it looks like the Nationals are ready to make some noise, but the two issues that plague all young teams are looming...health and development.
Friday, February 3, 2012
Friday, January 27, 2012
Nationals in the Outfield
No...this isn't a straight to dvd Disney sequel, it's an entry about the Nationals OF for 2012 and the issues it may pose. As of right now, the OF is looking like Jason Werth, a converted Catcher in CF, Michael Morse, a converted 1B in LF, and either Bryce Harper, a converted Catcher in RF, or Roger Bernadina who was brutal in CF and would just be a stop gap until Bryce is ready.
An outfield made up entirely of Catchers and First Basemen with a rather spacious OF area doesn't sound like the greatest formula for saving runs. The offensive implications are rather nice, if Werth can bounce back and have a normal year, combined with a young slugging 1B who if not for a decent contract for LaRoche would be the starter there, and possibly the best offensive prospect in the game in the same OF has some real potential.
According to Rtot (BBREF DEF metrics) Werth has been an above avg. defensive CF for his career including more than usual in WAS last year. Bernadina has been pretty bad in CF, but has done well in the corners, LF more than RF because he doesn't have the arm you'd like to see out there, a tad below average. His Rtot numbers are off the chart for LF, good for RF and not good for CF. Morse is interesting because has been right about avg. at 1B before last year and then was pretty bad last year when he had his most playing time there. In LF he wasn't any better, and he looks like he would be the guy that would be moved to DH if this were the AL. Hiding him in LF is made harder when you don't have great OF in Center and Right that you can shift over. It's a bit too early to get a good read on Harper since advanced metrics really aren't kept on minor leaguers, but his .960 fielding % and 8 errors isn't really encouraging.
All things considered, this is a situation that requires more watching as the Nats have been feeling out trades for CF all offseason, and Werth should in theory be more of an asset in RF than in CF, with him in RF and a better defensive CF out there you can cheat players over towards LF saving some of the exposure that Morse leaves you with in order to get his 30HR in the lineup.
Possible solutions:
Cespedes, OF - DR: He was granted FA this past week, and it's open season for the cuban export. He is viewed by some, including members of the Nats FO that think he's more of a corner OF than a CF. That might explain the shifting of Werth to CF, but it's hard to tell at this point.
Adam Jones, OF - BAL: Questions about his true intentions of extending in Baltimore have been hanging around for a year now, and with him a few years out from FA, his value could be at it's highest. A good mix of offense and defense could be exactly what WAS needs, but do they have the pieces to go get him? Rendon could make things work, but he can't be dealt until the summer.
A spring training casualty. Every year guys get cut, maybe someone will show up on the scrap heap that could help, but the odds aren't great for that one.
While it's not exactly a glaring black hole, this is definitely a position that the Nats can upgrade in. A midseason trade is likely, depending on the advancement of both Rendon and Harper.
An outfield made up entirely of Catchers and First Basemen with a rather spacious OF area doesn't sound like the greatest formula for saving runs. The offensive implications are rather nice, if Werth can bounce back and have a normal year, combined with a young slugging 1B who if not for a decent contract for LaRoche would be the starter there, and possibly the best offensive prospect in the game in the same OF has some real potential.
According to Rtot (BBREF DEF metrics) Werth has been an above avg. defensive CF for his career including more than usual in WAS last year. Bernadina has been pretty bad in CF, but has done well in the corners, LF more than RF because he doesn't have the arm you'd like to see out there, a tad below average. His Rtot numbers are off the chart for LF, good for RF and not good for CF. Morse is interesting because has been right about avg. at 1B before last year and then was pretty bad last year when he had his most playing time there. In LF he wasn't any better, and he looks like he would be the guy that would be moved to DH if this were the AL. Hiding him in LF is made harder when you don't have great OF in Center and Right that you can shift over. It's a bit too early to get a good read on Harper since advanced metrics really aren't kept on minor leaguers, but his .960 fielding % and 8 errors isn't really encouraging.
All things considered, this is a situation that requires more watching as the Nats have been feeling out trades for CF all offseason, and Werth should in theory be more of an asset in RF than in CF, with him in RF and a better defensive CF out there you can cheat players over towards LF saving some of the exposure that Morse leaves you with in order to get his 30HR in the lineup.
Possible solutions:
Cespedes, OF - DR: He was granted FA this past week, and it's open season for the cuban export. He is viewed by some, including members of the Nats FO that think he's more of a corner OF than a CF. That might explain the shifting of Werth to CF, but it's hard to tell at this point.
Adam Jones, OF - BAL: Questions about his true intentions of extending in Baltimore have been hanging around for a year now, and with him a few years out from FA, his value could be at it's highest. A good mix of offense and defense could be exactly what WAS needs, but do they have the pieces to go get him? Rendon could make things work, but he can't be dealt until the summer.
A spring training casualty. Every year guys get cut, maybe someone will show up on the scrap heap that could help, but the odds aren't great for that one.
While it's not exactly a glaring black hole, this is definitely a position that the Nats can upgrade in. A midseason trade is likely, depending on the advancement of both Rendon and Harper.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Top 10 Prospects...at least according to me.
Everyone and their brother has a top 10 prospects list these days, so while I was going to NOT do one in protest, my fondness for scouting and development got the best of me and I gave in. Well that, and Christmas is this weekend, so this was an easy one to write giving me more time to focus on holiday preparedness. I'm sure no one wants to hear about shopping, wrapping, and travel logistics though, so lets get to the meat and potatoes.
Nationals 2012 Top 10 Prospects:
1. Bryce Harper -RF: Duh. I mean if you don't know who this guy is, the rest of this blog isn't going to make much sense. He's got a strong arm, he's young (just turned 19 in October), already in AA and oh yeah, has the power for 500+ feet HR. Ladies and gentleman, the number one prospect in all of baseball.
2. Anthony Rendon - 3B: Yep, you read that right, 3B. The consensus was that WAS would move him to 2B to get him ready for a quick assent and playing in the same infield as team cornerstone, and all-star Ryan Zimmerman. However, this offseason the team announced it would play him at 3B for now and handle the problem when it arises. Reading between the lines it sounds like it plans on moving either Zimmerman or Rendon before he would get to the big-leagues, but that could just be speculation. Rendon has a strong arm, and good footwork over at 3B, enough where he could also be a great defensive 3B. His bat was the best in college and isn't far off from being ready. He's got the fastest wrists I've ever seen, and generates a lot of power from there. He will probably start in high-A, but a promotion to AA shouldn't be far behind.
AJ Cole - SP: Traded
Brad Peacock - SP: Traded
3. Brian Goodwin - OF: He's a bit of a tweener for me that got bumped up do to the trade. Not a pure speedster, but can run ok. Has some power potential, but probably not a masher. Pretty good defensively, but there are questions of if he has the speed and range to play CF or if he has to settle into a corner spot, seems like more of a LF to me. Still fairly raw and has some ceiling left to reach. If things click, he could be a solid LF, if they don't he's a borderline 4th OF/AAAA player.
4. Alex Meyer - SP: Was rumored to go in the top 10 for a good chunk of the season, but slipped to WAS at #23. Has a plus FB that sits around 95mph and a nasty power slider. Also has a changeup that is still a work in progress, but he throws it around 79mph and the near 15mph difference makes it more effective. Has some command issues, so that could be the decision maker of how effective Meyer will be, but there's some real potential there.
5. Matt Purke - SP: He is the big wild card here, a guy that was projected to be in the top 5 draft picks for a long time, if not #1 overall. Concerns with his mechanics, followed by injury led to him dropping like a rock and the Nats scooping him in the mid rounds. He came back healthy and then was rocked in the AFL , but just hoping that was rust, and he'll be fine in the spring. If he gets back to what he should be, he will be a top prospect in no time.
Derek Norris - C: Traded
6. Sammy Solis - SP: A teammate of Brian Matusz in college, he reminds me a bit of him as well. A low-90s FB, with a knuckle-curve, cutter, and a plus changeup with good movement it's easy to make the comparison.
Tom Milone - SP: Traded
7. Steve Lambardozzi - 2B: Solid gamer, reminds of Brian Roberts. Doesn't have super speed but steals a lot of bases due to good technique and base running skills. Has a little bit of pop, low-mid teens power and should hit a good amount of doubles. Good eye for contact, will hit near .300. Got a cup of coffee in the ML last year, but should be given a shot to compete with Espinosa in the spring, at worst looks to be a very solid backup.
8. Destin Hood - OF: Has been in the organization for a few years now, and although loaded with raw talent, it hadn't broken through...until this year. Hitting 13 HR and stealing 21 bases is a great start, but more encouragingly he dropped his K-rate by 5% last year. AA looks like the next stop, and it being the make or break stage for most prospects, it will be a telling year.
9. Eury Perez - OF: A pure speedster, every team has one. If he can increase his contact at the plate and get on base a little more he could be a weapon. Big difference between being Kimera Bartee or Michael Bourn though.
10. Matt Skole - 3B: I am higher on Skole than most, with concerns about his ability to make contact at higher levels, but I'm a believer in the power, and he reminds me a bit of Chris Davis in BAL. Dozens of prospects like this in the minors, and most don't make it, but since 4 players were knocked off the list, and I needed someone to fill in here, I'll just go with him and hope he makes the adjustments he needs this year to put it all together.
Prospects to watch:
Rick Hague - INF
Chris Marrero - 1B
Cole Kimball - RP
Nationals 2012 Top 10 Prospects:
1. Bryce Harper -RF: Duh. I mean if you don't know who this guy is, the rest of this blog isn't going to make much sense. He's got a strong arm, he's young (just turned 19 in October), already in AA and oh yeah, has the power for 500+ feet HR. Ladies and gentleman, the number one prospect in all of baseball.
2. Anthony Rendon - 3B: Yep, you read that right, 3B. The consensus was that WAS would move him to 2B to get him ready for a quick assent and playing in the same infield as team cornerstone, and all-star Ryan Zimmerman. However, this offseason the team announced it would play him at 3B for now and handle the problem when it arises. Reading between the lines it sounds like it plans on moving either Zimmerman or Rendon before he would get to the big-leagues, but that could just be speculation. Rendon has a strong arm, and good footwork over at 3B, enough where he could also be a great defensive 3B. His bat was the best in college and isn't far off from being ready. He's got the fastest wrists I've ever seen, and generates a lot of power from there. He will probably start in high-A, but a promotion to AA shouldn't be far behind.
AJ Cole - SP: Traded
Brad Peacock - SP: Traded
3. Brian Goodwin - OF: He's a bit of a tweener for me that got bumped up do to the trade. Not a pure speedster, but can run ok. Has some power potential, but probably not a masher. Pretty good defensively, but there are questions of if he has the speed and range to play CF or if he has to settle into a corner spot, seems like more of a LF to me. Still fairly raw and has some ceiling left to reach. If things click, he could be a solid LF, if they don't he's a borderline 4th OF/AAAA player.
4. Alex Meyer - SP: Was rumored to go in the top 10 for a good chunk of the season, but slipped to WAS at #23. Has a plus FB that sits around 95mph and a nasty power slider. Also has a changeup that is still a work in progress, but he throws it around 79mph and the near 15mph difference makes it more effective. Has some command issues, so that could be the decision maker of how effective Meyer will be, but there's some real potential there.
5. Matt Purke - SP: He is the big wild card here, a guy that was projected to be in the top 5 draft picks for a long time, if not #1 overall. Concerns with his mechanics, followed by injury led to him dropping like a rock and the Nats scooping him in the mid rounds. He came back healthy and then was rocked in the AFL , but just hoping that was rust, and he'll be fine in the spring. If he gets back to what he should be, he will be a top prospect in no time.
Derek Norris - C: Traded
6. Sammy Solis - SP: A teammate of Brian Matusz in college, he reminds me a bit of him as well. A low-90s FB, with a knuckle-curve, cutter, and a plus changeup with good movement it's easy to make the comparison.
Tom Milone - SP: Traded
7. Steve Lambardozzi - 2B: Solid gamer, reminds of Brian Roberts. Doesn't have super speed but steals a lot of bases due to good technique and base running skills. Has a little bit of pop, low-mid teens power and should hit a good amount of doubles. Good eye for contact, will hit near .300. Got a cup of coffee in the ML last year, but should be given a shot to compete with Espinosa in the spring, at worst looks to be a very solid backup.
8. Destin Hood - OF: Has been in the organization for a few years now, and although loaded with raw talent, it hadn't broken through...until this year. Hitting 13 HR and stealing 21 bases is a great start, but more encouragingly he dropped his K-rate by 5% last year. AA looks like the next stop, and it being the make or break stage for most prospects, it will be a telling year.
9. Eury Perez - OF: A pure speedster, every team has one. If he can increase his contact at the plate and get on base a little more he could be a weapon. Big difference between being Kimera Bartee or Michael Bourn though.
10. Matt Skole - 3B: I am higher on Skole than most, with concerns about his ability to make contact at higher levels, but I'm a believer in the power, and he reminds me a bit of Chris Davis in BAL. Dozens of prospects like this in the minors, and most don't make it, but since 4 players were knocked off the list, and I needed someone to fill in here, I'll just go with him and hope he makes the adjustments he needs this year to put it all together.
Prospects to watch:
Rick Hague - INF
Chris Marrero - 1B
Cole Kimball - RP
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Hunting a Prince?
As suitors for Prince Fielder are dropping out left and right for various reasons, it's starting to look like the Nationals might be one of the last teams standing by default. The NYY made some major moves to upgrade the rotation yesterday, and the big news that slid under the radar is that they are on a hard budget number that had to have special approval in order to sign Kuroda before they moved salary to pay for him. That takes them out of the mix (not that they were ever REALLY in it) for Fielder completely. The Red Sox have Gonzo, Youkilis and Ortiz at 1B/3B/DH already, so they are probably not in, and they have moves to make on the pitching end they haven't made yet.
CHC is looking to go younger and traded for A. Rizzo this week, without a DH, they don't have a place for Prince either if you follow the logic that you don't trade for a young ML ready player and then not play him. TEX still has to sign Darvish to a monster contract, and I'm not sure that they want to go on a spending spree like the Angels, but they are in the mix a bit.
As for the teams still IN the mix, SEA has long been rumored to be the front runner, but hasn't shown the willingness to get the deal done. Now with trading Pineda for Montero who looks to have to be a 1B/DH, it seems to be sending signals that it's out on Fielder, that is a LOT to give up for a young hitter, if you were about to sign a guy that plays the same position. TOR has been mentioned as being on the fringe of things for months, but there are rumors that they would rather save their money for a run at Canadian Joey Votto in 2 years instead. BAL has been mentioned because of the glaring hole at 1B they have, but most people seriously doubt that the team would pony up that kind of money to anyone since Angelos has become gun-shy. If his price comes down a bit, the O's could get in the mix, but it's a long shot after so many years of doing nothing in Baltimore.
With Spring Training set to start in a month, many people are baffled that Fielder still doesn't have a team, but there are so many issues with Prince that Boras is having a hard time working his usual magic. There just isn't going to be a bidding war for him at the price he's looking for. We could be looking at one of those rare instances where Boras doesn't get what he wants.
That brings us to the Nats. Word is that Morse is heading out to LF regardless of what happens in other places on the roster, with LaRoche at 1B. The hang up is that means LaRoche is dead salary since he can't play another position, and you might already have defensive issues with Werth going to CF this season (if they can't find another option), so you can't experiment with LaRoche in RF in addition to Werth in CF, and Morse in LF. You would have an OF with ZERO natural OF in it, that could be an issue in spacious Nationals Park. If you can get past all that, maybe Fielder makes some sense here. He's the type of player that puts WAS up in the division race for sure. A batting lineup with Harper-Fielder-Werth-Morse-Zimmerman in it isn't too shabby, and with the SP rotation looking very good right now, the Nats on paper could compete with anyone.
There is much to be seen, but I feel like the Nats have one more move in them at some level, and with 31 days to go before ST, it could happen at anytime now.
CHC is looking to go younger and traded for A. Rizzo this week, without a DH, they don't have a place for Prince either if you follow the logic that you don't trade for a young ML ready player and then not play him. TEX still has to sign Darvish to a monster contract, and I'm not sure that they want to go on a spending spree like the Angels, but they are in the mix a bit.
As for the teams still IN the mix, SEA has long been rumored to be the front runner, but hasn't shown the willingness to get the deal done. Now with trading Pineda for Montero who looks to have to be a 1B/DH, it seems to be sending signals that it's out on Fielder, that is a LOT to give up for a young hitter, if you were about to sign a guy that plays the same position. TOR has been mentioned as being on the fringe of things for months, but there are rumors that they would rather save their money for a run at Canadian Joey Votto in 2 years instead. BAL has been mentioned because of the glaring hole at 1B they have, but most people seriously doubt that the team would pony up that kind of money to anyone since Angelos has become gun-shy. If his price comes down a bit, the O's could get in the mix, but it's a long shot after so many years of doing nothing in Baltimore.
With Spring Training set to start in a month, many people are baffled that Fielder still doesn't have a team, but there are so many issues with Prince that Boras is having a hard time working his usual magic. There just isn't going to be a bidding war for him at the price he's looking for. We could be looking at one of those rare instances where Boras doesn't get what he wants.
That brings us to the Nats. Word is that Morse is heading out to LF regardless of what happens in other places on the roster, with LaRoche at 1B. The hang up is that means LaRoche is dead salary since he can't play another position, and you might already have defensive issues with Werth going to CF this season (if they can't find another option), so you can't experiment with LaRoche in RF in addition to Werth in CF, and Morse in LF. You would have an OF with ZERO natural OF in it, that could be an issue in spacious Nationals Park. If you can get past all that, maybe Fielder makes some sense here. He's the type of player that puts WAS up in the division race for sure. A batting lineup with Harper-Fielder-Werth-Morse-Zimmerman in it isn't too shabby, and with the SP rotation looking very good right now, the Nats on paper could compete with anyone.
There is much to be seen, but I feel like the Nats have one more move in them at some level, and with 31 days to go before ST, it could happen at anytime now.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Winning The Fan-Market Share
With the Washington Nationals
turning their organization around and making great strides in becoming competitive, I began to think about the impact the Nationals could have on the attendance for the Baltimore Orioles. The Nationals are
fairly close to contending, and when I say fairly close I mean that they
could contend for a wild-card spot this upcoming season. The Baltimore
Orioles on the other hand do not appear to be that close to contending
at all, but stranger things have happened and O’s fans can hope I guess.
I wondered what the attendance numbers for the Orioles were like once the Nationals came to town in 2005, I also wondered how much of each team’s attendance had to do with the number of games they won (stupid question I know, but still worth looking at).
In 2004, the year before the Nationals came to D.C., the Orioles attendance was
at 2.74 million for the entire year. While it has been at a fairly
steady downward pace since then, that has far more to do with the
performance on the field than it does with the Nationals moving about 40
miles away.
*Nationals Park Opens
As you can see from the chart above, there hasn’t been any major difference in attendance between the two teams with the exception of 2008, when the Nationals new ballpark opened up. The Nationals overall attendance since 2005 figures is roughly 450,000 fans higher than the Orioles’, but that’s primarily because of their new stadium opening up in 2008.
Both teams were rather similar in regards to competitiveness as evidenced by their total wins from the last six seasons. It makes for a great comparison because it’s not always easy finding two teams who compare so well to one another over the same period of time.
What we want to look out for though is any kind of spike that the Nationals are about to see in attendance, starting in 2012, brought about by the general feeling of their fan base that the team will be competitive. Even if the Nationals don’t make the playoffs, just being competitive or giving the thought of being competitive is enough to gain a boost in attendance.
By how high though, and is it even significant to take into consideration as an owner who’s spending the money?
I researched a few examples in baseball history of a team that has not made the playoffs for at least five consecutive seasons and what the attendance boost was like the year they made the playoffs.
Now we know, from the examples given, that the average boost in attendance for a team who hasn’t been to the playoffs in at least five years (like the Nationals) are likely to receive around a 16 % boost in attendance for that year.
What does that mean for the Washington Nationals organization?
Every team operates on a budget of some kind and an uptick in attendance means an uptick in revenues for your organization. A 16 percent increase in attendance from the 2011 season would give the team approximately 2.25 million fans total for next season. That’s approximately an additional 310,476 fan and the potential to go higher is there since this would be the first playoff season for the Nationals in their short history.
This would also give them more fans than what the Orioles will likely draw (around 1.8 million) in 2012 and could give the Nationals a definitive advantage in attracting more new fans in both markets going forward. The only way that the Orioles could prevent something like this from happening, and losing out on the fan market share, is to become competitive again and remain competitive for years to come.
If the Nationals manage to be the main draw there for the new baseball fans coming up and the generation of fans following after them then the Orioles will be at serious risk of losing parts of their own market, in regards to the total fans it can attract. Something like this would have a certain impact on television and broadcast revenues and the value that each of them has with MASN, their sports network. The Nationals could be in for an even bigger payday if they remain competitive and become the preferred team to watch on the network that Peter Angelos owns the majority share of, MASN.
I wondered what the attendance numbers for the Orioles were like once the Nationals came to town in 2005, I also wondered how much of each team’s attendance had to do with the number of games they won (stupid question I know, but still worth looking at).
In 2004, the year before the Nationals came to D.C., the Orioles attendance was
at 2.74 million for the entire year. While it has been at a fairly
steady downward pace since then, that has far more to do with the
performance on the field than it does with the Nationals moving about 40
miles away.
Orioles Attendance
|
Orioles W-L
|
Year
|
Nationals W-L
|
Nationals Attendance
|
2.74
|
78-84
|
2004
|
Not here
| |
2.62
|
74-88
|
2005
|
81-81
|
2.73
|
2.15
|
70-92
|
2006
|
71-91
|
2.15
|
2.16
|
69-93
|
2007
|
73-89
|
1.94
|
1.95
|
68-93
|
2008
|
59-102
|
*2.32
|
1.91
|
64-98
|
2009
|
59-103
|
1.82
|
1.73
|
66-96
|
2010
|
69-93
|
1.83
|
1.76
|
69-93
|
2011
|
80-81
|
1.94
|
14.28 (excl. 2004)
|
480-653
|
Total
|
492-640
|
14.73
|
As you can see from the chart above, there hasn’t been any major difference in attendance between the two teams with the exception of 2008, when the Nationals new ballpark opened up. The Nationals overall attendance since 2005 figures is roughly 450,000 fans higher than the Orioles’, but that’s primarily because of their new stadium opening up in 2008.
Both teams were rather similar in regards to competitiveness as evidenced by their total wins from the last six seasons. It makes for a great comparison because it’s not always easy finding two teams who compare so well to one another over the same period of time.
What we want to look out for though is any kind of spike that the Nationals are about to see in attendance, starting in 2012, brought about by the general feeling of their fan base that the team will be competitive. Even if the Nationals don’t make the playoffs, just being competitive or giving the thought of being competitive is enough to gain a boost in attendance.
By how high though, and is it even significant to take into consideration as an owner who’s spending the money?
I researched a few examples in baseball history of a team that has not made the playoffs for at least five consecutive seasons and what the attendance boost was like the year they made the playoffs.
Years
|
Team
|
Attendance
|
Difference
|
% Difference
|
2010
|
Rangers
|
2,505,171
|
+ 349,155
|
16 %
|
2009
|
2,156,016
| |||
2007
|
Phillies
|
3,108,325
|
+ 406,510
|
15 %
|
2006
|
2,701,815
| |||
1996
|
Orioles
|
3,646,950
|
+ 548,475
|
18 %
|
1995
|
3,098,475
|
Now we know, from the examples given, that the average boost in attendance for a team who hasn’t been to the playoffs in at least five years (like the Nationals) are likely to receive around a 16 % boost in attendance for that year.
What does that mean for the Washington Nationals organization?
Every team operates on a budget of some kind and an uptick in attendance means an uptick in revenues for your organization. A 16 percent increase in attendance from the 2011 season would give the team approximately 2.25 million fans total for next season. That’s approximately an additional 310,476 fan and the potential to go higher is there since this would be the first playoff season for the Nationals in their short history.
This would also give them more fans than what the Orioles will likely draw (around 1.8 million) in 2012 and could give the Nationals a definitive advantage in attracting more new fans in both markets going forward. The only way that the Orioles could prevent something like this from happening, and losing out on the fan market share, is to become competitive again and remain competitive for years to come.
If the Nationals manage to be the main draw there for the new baseball fans coming up and the generation of fans following after them then the Orioles will be at serious risk of losing parts of their own market, in regards to the total fans it can attract. Something like this would have a certain impact on television and broadcast revenues and the value that each of them has with MASN, their sports network. The Nationals could be in for an even bigger payday if they remain competitive and become the preferred team to watch on the network that Peter Angelos owns the majority share of, MASN.
Resolutions
So the holidays have come and gone, and now we are facing the start of a new year. In our lives it means resolutions that will more than likely only survive until March, tax returns, the threat of snow, and a countdown until Spring Training. The thought for baseball fans is solid, there is hope for a new season, hope that this year your team could win the World Series (unless your an Orioles fan), and that hope starts with the anticipation of Spring Training. For some of us, looking forward to Spring Training means that it will soon start getting warmer, leading to a summer of sun, BBQ, baseball and fun, and that anticipation starts as soon as the New Year comes and goes. It's funny how we live our lives with anticipation of the next benchmark on the calendar, sometimes overlooking the little things we enjoy every day.
All of that aside, and before we start looking ahead to July, it's the time for resolutions. Keeping with the theme of this blog, what is your resolution for the Washington Nationals this year?
For me, I resolve to watch more Nationals games and take more interest in my (almost) next-door neighbors of the baseball variety. Just for fun, I made a list of the resolutions I hope members of the organization would make this year:
Rizzo, GM- To find a starting CF, and add some depth before the season starts.
Strasburg, SP - To take care of his elbow and keep in mind how much strain that delivery and those pitches at that velocity puts on it.
Harper, RF - Not to let quick success go to his head.
Gonzalez, SP - To prove the doubters wrong and she he is one of the top young pitchers in baseball.
Zimmerman, 3B - To carry the leadership role on the team and help the young kids grow and stay out of trouble.
Desmond, SS - To work on base running and steals.
Espinosa, 2B - To work on plate discipline and patience.
Nationals Fans - To actually pay attention while at the games instead of doing work and talking on your cell phone the entire game. You have an exciting core to watch, so either come to cheer them on, or let someone who will take the free tickets you were given.
All of that aside, and before we start looking ahead to July, it's the time for resolutions. Keeping with the theme of this blog, what is your resolution for the Washington Nationals this year?
For me, I resolve to watch more Nationals games and take more interest in my (almost) next-door neighbors of the baseball variety. Just for fun, I made a list of the resolutions I hope members of the organization would make this year:
Rizzo, GM- To find a starting CF, and add some depth before the season starts.
Strasburg, SP - To take care of his elbow and keep in mind how much strain that delivery and those pitches at that velocity puts on it.
Harper, RF - Not to let quick success go to his head.
Gonzalez, SP - To prove the doubters wrong and she he is one of the top young pitchers in baseball.
Zimmerman, 3B - To carry the leadership role on the team and help the young kids grow and stay out of trouble.
Desmond, SS - To work on base running and steals.
Espinosa, 2B - To work on plate discipline and patience.
Nationals Fans - To actually pay attention while at the games instead of doing work and talking on your cell phone the entire game. You have an exciting core to watch, so either come to cheer them on, or let someone who will take the free tickets you were given.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Nationals Acquire Gonzalez
Keith Law had it first.
Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals for AJ Cole, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, and Tom Milone.
Big cost, but Nats have a 1-2-3 of Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann all under control for at least 4 more years.
I was in the middle of doing my Nats top 10 prospects, but after trading 33% of them in this deal I guess I'm going to have to re-work that now. I will update this later with some more in depth analysis, but looks like a win-win for both clubs. The remaining question is how do they fill that CF void without the trade pieces they just gave up?
The real prize for the A's in this deal is AJ Cole, he is the pick I begged the Orioles to make. The Nationals turned the$2m bonus they paid him into a key piece for boosting their rotation. Let's take a closer look at the pieces the Nationals gave up in this deal:
Brad Peacock: Some see him as the centerpiece of this deal, I don't agree personally, but I can see where some would say that. He's got a plus fastball that sits 94-95, however, there is little movement on it, it's pretty flat. He's also got a knuckle curve that is a plus pitch, think Mike Mussina level, it's a hard power curve, and he will use it both as a chase pitch and a break-over-the-plate pitch. He tends to reach back and overthrow the FB leaving it high, which sometimes results in strikeouts, but could be a risk against ML pitching, and the curve he likes to throw in the dirt when ahead in the count, so I hope the catchers have all their gear on. Brad's change is pretty weak, I'd be stretching if I called it an average pitch right now, but some improvement on that pitch could really take him into all-star starter territory. The problem is without that pitch, he's a two-pitch, power pitcher which screams RP. I think he has the tools to start with a little more refinement, and worst case is you could be looking an elite closer, but I'm on the fence which way he falls.
AJ Cole: This is the guy I think is the key to this deal. Cole sits comfortably around 92 and can dial it up to 94 when he needs to with his FB, it's got good movement, flashing plus at time, mostly running in on RHP and away from LHP. He's also got a slurve that has good differential from the FB, coming in around 78, that's almost a 15mph change of pace. He uses it as a chase pitch when he's ahead, and not so much when he's behind. His change is average, but still in better shape than Peacock's, so with two above-avg. to plus pitches and another average pitch, he's in very good shape at only 20 years old (in 2 weeks). With a long way to go, there is some improvement you could still see, and right now he's a darn good pitcher. This is the guy I could see being better than Gio out of the deal.
Derek Norris: Norris has good power, and plate discipline, he's a walk machine and looks to be a decent catcher with a good arm, but he's always struggled to hit for average, and could face a problem as he moves further up the ladder and sees less and less mistakes from opposing pitchers. It's easy to lay off really bad pitches, it's not as easy to lay off pitches that are right on the edge of the zone. He tends to step towards the baseline instead of the pitcher, which makes him vulnerable on the outside part of the plate. Still, with catchers being so hard to come by, Norris' power and batting eye make him an intriguing prospect. Especially for teams like OAK with such a high value on OBP.
Tom Milone: He was the guy OAK was holding out for, I'm not sure I would let him become a deal breaker in any deal, which is why WAS ultimately gave him up, but that's not to say he won't be a decent player. Milone is a softer tossing LHP with great control, that in itself can be very helpful on a ML staff, and he is ready for the big leagues. I guess OAK wanted him to fill one of the spots in the rotation on the short term. He's got a high 80's FB which is pretty average, but added a cutter this past season which has been pretty successful when used correctly. His curve has good separation from his FB in the mid 70's and great control of this too, but his real bread and butter is his change up. Milone has plus command with almost all of his pitches, and his change looks above average/plus itself. Pitchers with great command are hard to find, and tend to last a long time in this league, but when you are a soft tossing LHP with great control, it makes your pitches always around the plate, and hittable. He looks to be a serviceable starter, but he's going to have to work very hard on spotting his pitches and keeping them out of danger areas.
All in all, it was a lot of potential to give up for a pitcher, but when that pitcher is a LHP SP with proven success at the ML level, and under control for 4 more years, it looks like a win for both sides.
The improvement in the rotation weighs against the hole in CF with the offseason winding down. If WAS were to go out and sign Cespedes on top of getting Gio, there is more talent in the minors, and this team could be gearing up to take the NL East, not just for the next couple years, but for the long term.
Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals for AJ Cole, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, and Tom Milone.
Big cost, but Nats have a 1-2-3 of Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann all under control for at least 4 more years.
I was in the middle of doing my Nats top 10 prospects, but after trading 33% of them in this deal I guess I'm going to have to re-work that now. I will update this later with some more in depth analysis, but looks like a win-win for both clubs. The remaining question is how do they fill that CF void without the trade pieces they just gave up?
The real prize for the A's in this deal is AJ Cole, he is the pick I begged the Orioles to make. The Nationals turned the$2m bonus they paid him into a key piece for boosting their rotation. Let's take a closer look at the pieces the Nationals gave up in this deal:
Brad Peacock: Some see him as the centerpiece of this deal, I don't agree personally, but I can see where some would say that. He's got a plus fastball that sits 94-95, however, there is little movement on it, it's pretty flat. He's also got a knuckle curve that is a plus pitch, think Mike Mussina level, it's a hard power curve, and he will use it both as a chase pitch and a break-over-the-plate pitch. He tends to reach back and overthrow the FB leaving it high, which sometimes results in strikeouts, but could be a risk against ML pitching, and the curve he likes to throw in the dirt when ahead in the count, so I hope the catchers have all their gear on. Brad's change is pretty weak, I'd be stretching if I called it an average pitch right now, but some improvement on that pitch could really take him into all-star starter territory. The problem is without that pitch, he's a two-pitch, power pitcher which screams RP. I think he has the tools to start with a little more refinement, and worst case is you could be looking an elite closer, but I'm on the fence which way he falls.
AJ Cole: This is the guy I think is the key to this deal. Cole sits comfortably around 92 and can dial it up to 94 when he needs to with his FB, it's got good movement, flashing plus at time, mostly running in on RHP and away from LHP. He's also got a slurve that has good differential from the FB, coming in around 78, that's almost a 15mph change of pace. He uses it as a chase pitch when he's ahead, and not so much when he's behind. His change is average, but still in better shape than Peacock's, so with two above-avg. to plus pitches and another average pitch, he's in very good shape at only 20 years old (in 2 weeks). With a long way to go, there is some improvement you could still see, and right now he's a darn good pitcher. This is the guy I could see being better than Gio out of the deal.
Derek Norris: Norris has good power, and plate discipline, he's a walk machine and looks to be a decent catcher with a good arm, but he's always struggled to hit for average, and could face a problem as he moves further up the ladder and sees less and less mistakes from opposing pitchers. It's easy to lay off really bad pitches, it's not as easy to lay off pitches that are right on the edge of the zone. He tends to step towards the baseline instead of the pitcher, which makes him vulnerable on the outside part of the plate. Still, with catchers being so hard to come by, Norris' power and batting eye make him an intriguing prospect. Especially for teams like OAK with such a high value on OBP.
Tom Milone: He was the guy OAK was holding out for, I'm not sure I would let him become a deal breaker in any deal, which is why WAS ultimately gave him up, but that's not to say he won't be a decent player. Milone is a softer tossing LHP with great control, that in itself can be very helpful on a ML staff, and he is ready for the big leagues. I guess OAK wanted him to fill one of the spots in the rotation on the short term. He's got a high 80's FB which is pretty average, but added a cutter this past season which has been pretty successful when used correctly. His curve has good separation from his FB in the mid 70's and great control of this too, but his real bread and butter is his change up. Milone has plus command with almost all of his pitches, and his change looks above average/plus itself. Pitchers with great command are hard to find, and tend to last a long time in this league, but when you are a soft tossing LHP with great control, it makes your pitches always around the plate, and hittable. He looks to be a serviceable starter, but he's going to have to work very hard on spotting his pitches and keeping them out of danger areas.
All in all, it was a lot of potential to give up for a pitcher, but when that pitcher is a LHP SP with proven success at the ML level, and under control for 4 more years, it looks like a win for both sides.
The improvement in the rotation weighs against the hole in CF with the offseason winding down. If WAS were to go out and sign Cespedes on top of getting Gio, there is more talent in the minors, and this team could be gearing up to take the NL East, not just for the next couple years, but for the long term.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)