Exile on the Anacostia

Taking a look at the bullpen

2012-02-24T07:14:00.006-08:00

Candidates for the Nationals bullpen this season (barring injuries) look like:

Name: Throws: 2011 Stats:
Sean Burnett: L 56.2 IP 15 HLD 33K 3.81 ERA
Tyler Clippard: R 88.1 IP 38 HLD 104K 1.83ERA
Ross Detwiler: L 66.0IP 5QS 1HLD 41K 3.00ERA
Cole Kimball: R 14.0IP 0HLD 11K 1.93ERA
Brad Lidge: R 19.1IP 8HLD 1SV 23K 1.40ERA
Drew Storen: R 75.1 IP 43SV 74K 2.75ERA
Craig Stammen: R 10.1IP 1HLD 12K 0.87ERA
Yunesky Maya: R 32.3IP 1QS 15K 5.23ERA
Ryan Mattheus: R 32.0IP 8HLD 12K 2.81ERA
Tom Gorzellany: L 105IP 6QS 4HLD 95K 4.03ERA
John Lannan: L 184.2IP 16QS 106K 3.70ERA
Chen-Ming Wang: R 62.1IP 4QS 25K 4.04ERA
Henry Rodriquez: R 65.2IP 10HLD 2 SV 70K 3.56ERA

Early in the season when pitchers are still being stretched out, it's more common to see teams keep a short bench and an extra guy in the pen to start the season, but until the 5th starter is needed you may see both Wang and Lannan pitch out of the pen the first week or so taking care of that need. Spring Training will probably decide whether Johnson feels like he needs a deeper bench or a deeper pen to start the season.

The fact that Lannan, Gorzellany, Detwiler and Burnett are the only LH in the competition could work against Lannan in the 5th starter competition. If Detwiler is sent to AAA to start the season, that creates more of a need for a LHP versus a RHP in the pen, so if things are fairly even between Wang and Lannan, Lannan could end up in the pen out of concerns for balance.

Storen established himself as quite a young closer last season, but when Lidge is healthy he's one of the best in the game. This could turn into a 2-headed closing monster before long. The Nationals came dangerously close to dealing Storen this offseason for a CF, so maybe they aren't as confident in them as they should be, but either way those two should start at the back of the pen in some form. After that Clippard and Burnett should be 1-inning options for the 7th/8th area as a R and L option.

There are 12 men in the mix for an 8 or 9 man BP (my guess is 8) which means that 4 guys aren't going to make the opening day roster. Detwiler could be sent to AAA to be a starter, which means that 3 more out of Rodriguez, Kimball, Mattheus, Maya, and Stammen are probably headed to AAA. Overall, it's one of the more solid BP in baseball as is, with 2 solid closing options (Lidge, Storen), two established set up men both R and L (Clippard, Burnett), and a couple guys who could be 3rd starters on some teams in the long roles (Lannan, Wang).

The Future Is Now

2012-02-03T07:28:00.000-08:00

Since Les Expos moved to DC, the fan-base that has been alienated by one of the worst owners in sports 40 miles away (Baltimore) has been waiting for the losing years to give way to promise and growth. It looks like the wait is over...

The Edwin Jackson FA watch was nearing an end, with him supposedly weighing a one-year offer from BOS, a multi-year offer from BAL, and two possible other multi-year offers. Then comes the news that's he's agreed to a one-year deal, and people start typing the headline Jackson to BOS...er WHAT? He took a one-year deal, but in WAS??? Were they even looking for another pitcher with Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Lannan and Wang penciled into the rotation?? Well, now they've got 6 legit starters for 5 spots because they did indeed swoop in and sign Edwin Jackson to a one-year $8M deal on Thursday.

The rotation was already looking really good with a tough 1-2-3 punch, young and controllable, but now adding a 28 year old who has been around the league and has put up a sub-4.0 ERA splitting time between CHW and STL. Last year, in fact, the Cards don't win the WS without Jackson getting them there. Jackson has always been a little hit or miss, he will strike out 10, but walk 6 in the process, as illustrated by his no-hitter in 2010 while walking 8. A one year contract in a pitchers park for an up and coming young team is a good way to draw attention before UFA, however there is always risk, such as injury or ineffectiveness that could end up costing him money.

I think that it's a good deal for him, and provided healthy, he's setting himself up for the $10m/yr contract he wants next offseason. He'd be a nice consolation prize to a team missing out on Cain, Grienke, Marcum, Moon, or the other starters available, but that is a lot of competition for money next year, so time will tell if this backfires.

With a rotation of Strasburg-Gonzalez-Zimmerman-Jackson-Lannan/Wang/Detwiler they look like they are ready to hang with anyone in the East. A lineup of Ramos, LaRoche, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman, Morse, Werth and Harper could be good enough to make some noise, although there are still questions about if Harper is ready or not, I'd be surprised if he's not in the lineup by July.

By rolling out a promotion about taking back the park and not letting Phillies fans roll en masse into the stadium, it looks like the Nationals are ready to make some noise, but the two issues that plague all young teams are looming...health and development.

Nationals in the Outfield

2012-01-27T14:49:00.000-08:00

No...this isn't a straight to dvd Disney sequel, it's an entry about the Nationals OF for 2012 and the issues it may pose. As of right now, the OF is looking like Jason Werth, a converted Catcher in CF, Michael Morse, a converted 1B in LF, and either Bryce Harper, a converted Catcher in RF, or Roger Bernadina who was brutal in CF and would just be a stop gap until Bryce is ready.

An outfield made up entirely of Catchers and First Basemen with a rather spacious OF area doesn't sound like the greatest formula for saving runs. The offensive implications are rather nice, if Werth can bounce back and have a normal year, combined with a young slugging 1B who if not for a decent contract for LaRoche would be the starter there, and possibly the best offensive prospect in the game in the same OF has some real potential.

According to Rtot (BBREF DEF metrics) Werth has been an above avg. defensive CF for his career including more than usual in WAS last year. Bernadina has been pretty bad in CF, but has done well in the corners, LF more than RF because he doesn't have the arm you'd like to see out there, a tad below average. His Rtot numbers are off the chart for LF, good for RF and not good for CF. Morse is interesting because has been right about avg. at 1B before last year and then was pretty bad last year when he had his most playing time there. In LF he wasn't any better, and he looks like he would be the guy that would be moved to DH if this were the AL. Hiding him in LF is made harder when you don't have great OF in Center and Right that you can shift over. It's a bit too early to get a good read on Harper since advanced metrics really aren't kept on minor leaguers, but his .960 fielding % and 8 errors isn't really encouraging.

All things considered, this is a situation that requires more watching as the Nats have been feeling out trades for CF all offseason, and Werth should in theory be more of an asset in RF than in CF, with him in RF and a better defensive CF out there you can cheat players over towards LF saving some of the exposure that Morse leaves you with in order to get his 30HR in the lineup.

Possible solutions:

Cespedes, OF - DR: He was granted FA this past week, and it's open season for the cuban export. He is viewed by some, including members of the Nats FO that think he's more of a corner OF than a CF. That might explain the shifting of Werth to CF, but it's hard to tell at this point.

Adam Jones, OF - BAL: Questions about his true intentions of extending in Baltimore have been hanging around for a year now, and with him a few years out from FA, his value could be at it's highest. A good mix of offense and defense could be exactly what WAS needs, but do they have the pieces to go get him? Rendon could make things work, but he can't be dealt until the summer.

A spring training casualty. Every year guys get cut, maybe someone will show up on the scrap heap that could help, but the odds aren't great for that one.

While it's not exactly a glaring black hole, this is definitely a position that the Nats can upgrade in. A midseason trade is likely, depending on the advancement of both Rendon and Harper.

Top 10 Prospects...at least according to me.

2012-01-20T08:22:00.000-08:00

Everyone and their brother has a top 10 prospects list these days, so while I was going to NOT do one in protest, my fondness for scouting and development got the best of me and I gave in. Well that, and Christmas is this weekend, so this was an easy one to write giving me more time to focus on holiday preparedness. I'm sure no one wants to hear about shopping, wrapping, and travel logistics though, so lets get to the meat and potatoes.

Nationals 2012 Top 10 Prospects:

1. Bryce Harper -RF: Duh. I mean if you don't know who this guy is, the rest of this blog isn't going to make much sense. He's got a strong arm, he's young (just turned 19 in October), already in AA and oh yeah, has the power for 500+ feet HR. Ladies and gentleman, the number one prospect in all of baseball.

2. Anthony Rendon - 3B: Yep, you read that right, 3B. The consensus was that WAS would move him to 2B to get him ready for a quick assent and playing in the same infield as team cornerstone, and all-star Ryan Zimmerman. However, this offseason the team announced it would play him at 3B for now and handle the problem when it arises. Reading between the lines it sounds like it plans on moving either Zimmerman or Rendon before he would get to the big-leagues, but that could just be speculation. Rendon has a strong arm, and good footwork over at 3B, enough where he could also be a great defensive 3B. His bat was the best in college and isn't far off from being ready. He's got the fastest wrists I've ever seen, and generates a lot of power from there. He will probably start in high-A, but a promotion to AA shouldn't be far behind.

AJ Cole - SP: Traded

Brad Peacock - SP: Traded

3. Brian Goodwin - OF: He's a bit of a tweener for me that got bumped up do to the trade. Not a pure speedster, but can run ok. Has some power potential, but probably not a masher. Pretty good defensively, but there are questions of if he has the speed and range to play CF or if he has to settle into a corner spot, seems like more of a LF to me. Still fairly raw and has some ceiling left to reach. If things click, he could be a solid LF, if they don't he's a borderline 4th OF/AAAA player.

4. Alex Meyer - SP: Was rumored to go in the top 10 for a good chunk of the season, but slipped to WAS at #23. Has a plus FB that sits around 95mph and a nasty power slider. Also has a changeup that is still a work in progress, but he throws it around 79mph and the near 15mph difference makes it more effective. Has some command issues, so that could be the decision maker of how effective Meyer will be, but there's some real potential there.

5. Matt Purke - SP: He is the big wild card here, a guy that was projected to be in the top 5 draft picks for a long time, if not #1 overall. Concerns with his mechanics, followed by injury led to him dropping like a rock and the Nats scooping him in the mid rounds. He came back healthy and then was rocked in the AFL , but just hoping that was rust, and he'll be fine in the spring. If he gets back to what he should be, he will be a top prospect in no time.

Derek Norris - C: Traded

6. Sammy Solis - SP: A teammate of Brian Matusz in college, he reminds me a bit of him as well. A low-90s FB, with a knuckle-curve, cutter, and a plus changeup with good movement it's easy to make the comparison.

Tom Milone - SP: Traded

7. Steve Lambardozzi - 2B: Solid gamer, reminds of Brian Roberts. Doesn't have super speed but steals a lot of bases due to good technique and base running skills. Has a little bit of pop, low-mid teens power and should hit a good amount of doubles. Good eye for contact, will hit near .300. Got a cup of coffee in the ML last year, but should be given a shot to compete with Espinosa in the spring, at worst looks to be a very solid backup.

8. Destin Hood - OF: Has been in the organization for a few years now, and although loaded with raw talent, it hadn't broken through...until this year. Hitting 13 HR and stealing 21 bases is a great start, but more encouragingly he dropped his K-rate by 5% last year. AA looks like the next stop, and it being the make or break stage for most prospects, it will be a telling year.

9. Eury Perez - OF: A pure speedster, every team has one. If he can increase his contact at the plate and get on base a little more he could be a weapon. Big difference between being Kimera Bartee or Michael Bourn though.

10. Matt Skole - 3B: I am higher on Skole than most, with concerns about his ability to make contact at higher levels, but I'm a believer in the power, and he reminds me a bit of Chris Davis in BAL. Dozens of prospects like this in the minors, and most don't make it, but since 4 players were knocked off the list, and I needed someone to fill in here, I'll just go with him and hope he makes the adjustments he needs this year to put it all together.

Prospects to watch:

Rick Hague - INF
Chris Marrero - 1B
Cole Kimball - RP

Hunting a Prince?

2012-01-14T06:18:00.000-08:00

As suitors for Prince Fielder are dropping out left and right for various reasons, it's starting to look like the Nationals might be one of the last teams standing by default. The NYY made some major moves to upgrade the rotation yesterday, and the big news that slid under the radar is that they are on a hard budget number that had to have special approval in order to sign Kuroda before they moved salary to pay for him. That takes them out of the mix (not that they were ever REALLY in it) for Fielder completely. The Red Sox have Gonzo, Youkilis and Ortiz at 1B/3B/DH already, so they are probably not in, and they have moves to make on the pitching end they haven't made yet.
CHC is looking to go younger and traded for A. Rizzo this week, without a DH, they don't have a place for Prince either if you follow the logic that you don't trade for a young ML ready player and then not play him. TEX still has to sign Darvish to a monster contract, and I'm not sure that they want to go on a spending spree like the Angels, but they are in the mix a bit.

As for the teams still IN the mix, SEA has long been rumored to be the front runner, but hasn't shown the willingness to get the deal done. Now with trading Pineda for Montero who looks to have to be a 1B/DH, it seems to be sending signals that it's out on Fielder, that is a LOT to give up for a young hitter, if you were about to sign a guy that plays the same position. TOR has been mentioned as being on the fringe of things for months, but there are rumors that they would rather save their money for a run at Canadian Joey Votto in 2 years instead. BAL has been mentioned because of the glaring hole at 1B they have, but most people seriously doubt that the team would pony up that kind of money to anyone since Angelos has become gun-shy. If his price comes down a bit, the O's could get in the mix, but it's a long shot after so many years of doing nothing in Baltimore.

With Spring Training set to start in a month, many people are baffled that Fielder still doesn't have a team, but there are so many issues with Prince that Boras is having a hard time working his usual magic. There just isn't going to be a bidding war for him at the price he's looking for. We could be looking at one of those rare instances where Boras doesn't get what he wants.

That brings us to the Nats. Word is that Morse is heading out to LF regardless of what happens in other places on the roster, with LaRoche at 1B. The hang up is that means LaRoche is dead salary since he can't play another position, and you might already have defensive issues with Werth going to CF this season (if they can't find another option), so you can't experiment with LaRoche in RF in addition to Werth in CF, and Morse in LF. You would have an OF with ZERO natural OF in it, that could be an issue in spacious Nationals Park. If you can get past all that, maybe Fielder makes some sense here. He's the type of player that puts WAS up in the division race for sure. A batting lineup with Harper-Fielder-Werth-Morse-Zimmerman in it isn't too shabby, and with the SP rotation looking very good right now, the Nats on paper could compete with anyone.

There is much to be seen, but I feel like the Nats have one more move in them at some level, and with 31 days to go before ST, it could happen at anytime now.

Winning The Fan-Market Share

2011-12-30T20:01:00.000-08:00

With the Washington Nationals turning their organization around and making great strides in becoming competitive, I began to think about the impact the Nationals could have on the attendance for the Baltimore Orioles. The Nationals are fairly close to contending, and when I say fairly close I mean that they could contend for a wild-card spot this upcoming season. The Baltimore Orioles on the other hand do not appear to be that close to contending at all, but stranger things have happened and O’s fans can hope I guess.

I wondered what the attendance numbers for the Orioles were like once the Nationals came to town in 2005, I also wondered how much of each team’s attendance had to do with the number of games they won (stupid question I know, but still worth looking at).

In 2004, the year before the Nationals came to D.C., the Orioles attendance was at 2.74 million for the entire year. While it has been at a fairly steady downward pace since then, that has far more to do with the performance on the field than it does with the Nationals moving about 40 miles away.

Orioles Attendance	Orioles W-L	Year	Nationals W-L	Nationals Attendance
2.74	78-84	2004		Not here
2.62	74-88	2005	81-81	2.73
2.15	70-92	2006	71-91	2.15
2.16	69-93	2007	73-89	1.94
1.95	68-93	2008	59-102	*2.32
1.91	64-98	2009	59-103	1.82
1.73	66-96	2010	69-93	1.83
1.76	69-93	2011	80-81	1.94
14.28 (excl. 2004)	480-653	Total	492-640	14.73

*Nationals Park Opens

As you can see from the chart above, there hasn’t been any major difference in attendance between the two teams with the exception of 2008, when the Nationals new ballpark opened up. The Nationals overall attendance since 2005 figures is roughly 450,000 fans higher than the Orioles’, but that’s primarily because of their new stadium opening up in 2008.

Both teams were rather similar in regards to competitiveness as evidenced by their total wins from the last six seasons. It makes for a great comparison because it’s not always easy finding two teams who compare so well to one another over the same period of time.

What we want to look out for though is any kind of spike that the Nationals are about to see in attendance, starting in 2012, brought about by the general feeling of their fan base that the team will be competitive. Even if the Nationals don’t make the playoffs, just being competitive or giving the thought of being competitive is enough to gain a boost in attendance.

By how high though, and is it even significant to take into consideration as an owner who’s spending the money?

I researched a few examples in baseball history of a team that has not made the playoffs for at least five consecutive seasons and what the attendance boost was like the year they made the playoffs.

Years	Team	Attendance	Difference	% Difference
2010	Rangers	2,505,171	+ 349,155	16 %
2009		2,156,016

2007	Phillies	3,108,325	+ 406,510	15 %
2006		2,701,815

1996	Orioles	3,646,950	+ 548,475	18 %
1995		3,098,475

Now we know, from the examples given, that the average boost in attendance for a team who hasn’t been to the playoffs in at least five years (like the Nationals) are likely to receive around a 16 % boost in attendance for that year.

What does that mean for the Washington Nationals organization?

Every team operates on a budget of some kind and an uptick in attendance means an uptick in revenues for your organization. A 16 percent increase in attendance from the 2011 season would give the team approximately 2.25 million fans total for next season. That’s approximately an additional 310,476 fan and the potential to go higher is there since this would be the first playoff season for the Nationals in their short history.

This would also give them more fans than what the Orioles will likely draw (around 1.8 million) in 2012 and could give the Nationals a definitive advantage in attracting more new fans in both markets going forward. The only way that the Orioles could prevent something like this from happening, and losing out on the fan market share, is to become competitive again and remain competitive for years to come.

If the Nationals manage to be the main draw there for the new baseball fans coming up and the generation of fans following after them then the Orioles will be at serious risk of losing parts of their own market, in regards to the total fans it can attract. Something like this would have a certain impact on television and broadcast revenues and the value that each of them has with MASN, their sports network. The Nationals could be in for an even bigger payday if they remain competitive and become the preferred team to watch on the network that Peter Angelos owns the majority share of, MASN.

Resolutions

2011-12-30T08:47:00.000-08:00

So the holidays have come and gone, and now we are facing the start of a new year. In our lives it means resolutions that will more than likely only survive until March, tax returns, the threat of snow, and a countdown until Spring Training. The thought for baseball fans is solid, there is hope for a new season, hope that this year your team could win the World Series (unless your an Orioles fan), and that hope starts with the anticipation of Spring Training. For some of us, looking forward to Spring Training means that it will soon start getting warmer, leading to a summer of sun, BBQ, baseball and fun, and that anticipation starts as soon as the New Year comes and goes. It's funny how we live our lives with anticipation of the next benchmark on the calendar, sometimes overlooking the little things we enjoy every day.

All of that aside, and before we start looking ahead to July, it's the time for resolutions. Keeping with the theme of this blog, what is your resolution for the Washington Nationals this year?

For me, I resolve to watch more Nationals games and take more interest in my (almost) next-door neighbors of the baseball variety. Just for fun, I made a list of the resolutions I hope members of the organization would make this year:

Rizzo, GM- To find a starting CF, and add some depth before the season starts.

Strasburg, SP - To take care of his elbow and keep in mind how much strain that delivery and those pitches at that velocity puts on it.

Harper, RF - Not to let quick success go to his head.

Gonzalez, SP - To prove the doubters wrong and she he is one of the top young pitchers in baseball.

Zimmerman, 3B - To carry the leadership role on the team and help the young kids grow and stay out of trouble.

Desmond, SS - To work on base running and steals.

Espinosa, 2B - To work on plate discipline and patience.

Nationals Fans - To actually pay attention while at the games instead of doing work and talking on your cell phone the entire game. You have an exciting core to watch, so either come to cheer them on, or let someone who will take the free tickets you were given.

Nationals Acquire Gonzalez

2011-12-22T13:06:00.000-08:00

Keith Law had it first.
Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals for AJ Cole, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, and Tom Milone.

Big cost, but Nats have a 1-2-3 of Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann all under control for at least 4 more years.

I was in the middle of doing my Nats top 10 prospects, but after trading 33% of them in this deal I guess I'm going to have to re-work that now. I will update this later with some more in depth analysis, but looks like a win-win for both clubs. The remaining question is how do they fill that CF void without the trade pieces they just gave up?

The real prize for the A's in this deal is AJ Cole, he is the pick I begged the Orioles to make. The Nationals turned the$2m bonus they paid him into a key piece for boosting their rotation. Let's take a closer look at the pieces the Nationals gave up in this deal:

Brad Peacock: Some see him as the centerpiece of this deal, I don't agree personally, but I can see where some would say that. He's got a plus fastball that sits 94-95, however, there is little movement on it, it's pretty flat. He's also got a knuckle curve that is a plus pitch, think Mike Mussina level, it's a hard power curve, and he will use it both as a chase pitch and a break-over-the-plate pitch. He tends to reach back and overthrow the FB leaving it high, which sometimes results in strikeouts, but could be a risk against ML pitching, and the curve he likes to throw in the dirt when ahead in the count, so I hope the catchers have all their gear on. Brad's change is pretty weak, I'd be stretching if I called it an average pitch right now, but some improvement on that pitch could really take him into all-star starter territory. The problem is without that pitch, he's a two-pitch, power pitcher which screams RP. I think he has the tools to start with a little more refinement, and worst case is you could be looking an elite closer, but I'm on the fence which way he falls.

AJ Cole: This is the guy I think is the key to this deal. Cole sits comfortably around 92 and can dial it up to 94 when he needs to with his FB, it's got good movement, flashing plus at time, mostly running in on RHP and away from LHP. He's also got a slurve that has good differential from the FB, coming in around 78, that's almost a 15mph change of pace. He uses it as a chase pitch when he's ahead, and not so much when he's behind. His change is average, but still in better shape than Peacock's, so with two above-avg. to plus pitches and another average pitch, he's in very good shape at only 20 years old (in 2 weeks). With a long way to go, there is some improvement you could still see, and right now he's a darn good pitcher. This is the guy I could see being better than Gio out of the deal.

Derek Norris: Norris has good power, and plate discipline, he's a walk machine and looks to be a decent catcher with a good arm, but he's always struggled to hit for average, and could face a problem as he moves further up the ladder and sees less and less mistakes from opposing pitchers. It's easy to lay off really bad pitches, it's not as easy to lay off pitches that are right on the edge of the zone. He tends to step towards the baseline instead of the pitcher, which makes him vulnerable on the outside part of the plate. Still, with catchers being so hard to come by, Norris' power and batting eye make him an intriguing prospect. Especially for teams like OAK with such a high value on OBP.

Tom Milone: He was the guy OAK was holding out for, I'm not sure I would let him become a deal breaker in any deal, which is why WAS ultimately gave him up, but that's not to say he won't be a decent player. Milone is a softer tossing LHP with great control, that in itself can be very helpful on a ML staff, and he is ready for the big leagues. I guess OAK wanted him to fill one of the spots in the rotation on the short term. He's got a high 80's FB which is pretty average, but added a cutter this past season which has been pretty successful when used correctly. His curve has good separation from his FB in the mid 70's and great control of this too, but his real bread and butter is his change up. Milone has plus command with almost all of his pitches, and his change looks above average/plus itself. Pitchers with great command are hard to find, and tend to last a long time in this league, but when you are a soft tossing LHP with great control, it makes your pitches always around the plate, and hittable. He looks to be a serviceable starter, but he's going to have to work very hard on spotting his pitches and keeping them out of danger areas.

All in all, it was a lot of potential to give up for a pitcher, but when that pitcher is a LHP SP with proven success at the ML level, and under control for 4 more years, it looks like a win for both sides.

The improvement in the rotation weighs against the hole in CF with the offseason winding down. If WAS were to go out and sign Cespedes on top of getting Gio, there is more talent in the minors, and this team could be gearing up to take the NL East, not just for the next couple years, but for the long term.

Nationals in on Gio Gonzalez

2011-12-19T18:09:00.000-08:00

Word all day around baseball has been that the Nationals are closing in on a trade with the Athletics for Gio Gonzalez. This would be that home run move that I've been waiting for all offseason. Gio is a young lefty under control for 4 more seasons (like Mat Latos, you might have heard of him, he was just traded for a small country worth of talent). Gio would slot in perfectly in between Strasburg and Zimmermann breaking up the righty duo, and giving the Nats a top 3 that could compete with most in baseball.

With those three at the top of the order, and Wang and Lannan to round out the group, the Nationals should have a rotation built to get to and win in the playoffs.

What would it take to close the deal?

After the Latos trade, you would think half of your farm system, however, I think that trade will be seen as the exception, not the rule, and you'll see a more reasonable return for Gio. Now that return would still be steep as young controllable lefties don't grow on trees, actually now that I mention of it, they don't often grow anywhere, good ones especially are pretty rare. Any conversation will probably start with Detweiller, or Peacock and one of their young catchers. A proposed 4-1 deal was being discussed according to Ken Rosenthal, but no names were for sure. I would have to say, a deal with Detweiller AND Peacock and a young catcher might be enough to get things going. Since Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gio would all be under control for at least 4 more years, I'd have to say they can afford to trade that pitching depth.

The Braves are out shopping, looking for OF offense. The Phillies are getting old, but re-signed Rollins this week. The Marlins are making splashes left and right and are looking hungry. The Mets...well, they are just a mess, but the rest of the division isn't going to sit by and just let the Nationals walk by, so it's going to take a couple key moves, and this is a perfect move to make.

Looking At The Starting Rotation

2011-12-19T16:34:00.000-08:00

The Washington Nationals have been in the market for an innings-eating type starting pitcher since the offseason began. Today, they’re still looking for that workhorse guy but are also beginning to accept the fact that they may begin the regular season with the same group they finished last season with. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan and fifth-starter candidates Ross Detwiler and 2008 10^th round pick Tommy Milone.

The biggest issue facing the Nationals with their rotation though is that there isn’t a single starter in that group who can be counted on for 200 or more innings in 2012. The team’s pitching staff as a whole finished the 2011 season 7^th in all of baseball with a 3.58 ERA and just 14^th in total innings pitched with 1449.1. However, the alarming statistic in that the starting pitchers only accounted for 928.2 innings of that work, which was only good for 28^th in all of baseball. The starters’ ERA on the season was 3.80 and they were 24^th in baseball with just 79 quality starts.

Stephen Strasburg, the team’s de facto ace, only pitched 24 innings last season after coming back from Tommy John Surgery. The team would be extremely fortunate if they were able to get 150 to 160 innings of work out of him next year, without risking further injury to their superstar.

Jordan Zimmerman, the team’s obvious number two starter, only pitched 161.1 innings last season and will be two years removed from Tommy John Surgery in 2012. I really don’t see the team pushing Zimmerman past 180 to 185 innings next year, as to avoid higher injury risk for the young star.

“We feel we have in-house candidates for the No. 2 starter behind (Strasburg). Jordan Zimmermann had a terrific year last year, really a breakthrough year for him. We expect bigger and better things—it will be his first full season off of Tommy John surgery—so we’re excited for big things from him. We’re always looking to improve the rotation. You can never have enough good, quality starting pitching in this division, so we’re always in the market for that.”—Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, discussing the team’s starting rotation in a Q-and-A with the team’s website.

John Lannan is likely the team’s number three starter and while he pitched 184.2 innings last year, he walks way too many batters to be counted on for 200 innings. He walked 3.7 batters per nine innings pitched last season and if it wasn’t for the ground balls he was able to induce at a 54.1% rate his ERA wouldn’t have been sitting at a ‘decent’ 3.70 by seasons end.

Their likely number four starter is Chien-Ming Wang and he won’t be coming close to 200 innings either because he only pitched 62.1 innings last year. Wang was certainly effective for most of those innings, especially coming back from almost 2 ½ years of injuries, but the team won’t be pushing him very far either. He will likely finish the season with around 160 to 170 innings of work as long as he stays effective over the course of a full season.

As far as their number five starter goes – well, if it were up to me then I’d choose to throw rookie Tommy Milone in that spot. This guy had a 3.22 ERA in Triple-A Syracuse over 148.1 innings of work and then got called up to the Nationals and posted a 3.81 ERA over 26 innings of work. That’s 174.1 total innings of work for him in 2011, which means that he’s the best candidate to get close to 200 + innings in 2012 if he’s in the rotation.

Every team aspires to land a workhorse starting pitcher in the offseason because let’s face it, every team could use one. And while not landing that guy this offseason certainly doesn’t help the Nationals cause of winning their division, and the World Series, in 2012 – they still have a top ten starting rotation if they aren’t decimated with injuries and three out of the five can get you close to 200 innings.

I would definitely look for the Nationals to become a serious wild-card contender next season, even if the division title is still slightly out of reach.

The importance of good scouting.

2011-12-16T11:13:00.000-08:00

So, I started this morning thinking that I was going to do a top 10 prospect list for the Nats, it's not real hard to do they have a very solid top 5-6 that don't take much thought. But something happened to my train of thought on the way to the depot (ha, see what I did there, a play on Camden Depot). The Orioles shook up their scouting department in a big, controversial way and sidetracked me all morning. So I decided I'd write about the impact of good scouting and how that impacts the Nationals.

Building a winning team comes from identifying the right talent at the amateur level, and then supplementing the pieces that don't pan out later on. The more you hit on in the draft, means the less you have to overpay for later. When the Nationals brought in Mike Rizzo, they started a plan in motion that involved an overhaul of the scouting department, and a shift towards spending the money it takes to build through the draft. A couple terrible years on the field translated to a couple of the best draft picks of the past 20 years, and the willingness to pay later in the draft is reaping benefits for a team on the rise.

Recent draft picks of note:

Aaron Crow - We all know how this went. He didn't sign, drafted by KC, has turned into a legit ML closer. However, looking more into things, with the pick the Nats got for not signing him, they drafted Drew Storen who has been a ML closer for more than a year already and for MUCH less money.
Stephen Strasburg - Shouldnt' have to mention this. Slam dunk pick, a superstar in the making, and then picks up a dreaded Tommy John surgery along the way. Seems to have come back strong, and even down a couple MPH he is still better than most of MLB starters.
Drew Storen - See above. Signability pick, has turned into a very capable MLB closer.
Bryce Harper - The SI cover boy himself, amazing power potential and moving through the minors and a very fast clip. Looks to be the future of offense in DC.
Sammy Solis - Solid lefty putting up good stats in the minors and could be a back end starter, solid RP or great trade bait.
AJ Cole - A personal favorite of mine, picked up in the 4th round and is still a work in progress but has start potential. Still a bit of a 2-pitch guy, but if his change-up improves, he could be a really good #2/3 pitcher in DC.
Anthony Rendon - Considered the top talent in the 2011 draft, injury concerns dropped him into the Nationals lap, who wisely gobbled him up. Will start his career as a 3B, but a possible shift to 2B or a trade seems on the horizon with Zimmerman firmly entrenched.
Alex Meyer - Very solid late 1st rounder who was projected in the top 10 most of the year.
Brian Goodwin - Looks like a CF of the future, great tools and very coachable.
Matt Purke - In talks for the top 5 most of the year, injuries dropped him late into 2011, loss of velocity and a disaster small sample in the AFL have people asking questions.
Matt Skole - 3B for Georgia Tech was a sleeper of mine who had a good debut in the NY/P league, someone to keep an eye on.

While this may seem like a solid top 10 list in the making, it's actually just my favorite picks of theirs since 2009. In 3 years, they have infused a HUGE amount of talent into a team and this is the biggest reason why the Nationals are a sleeper pick for many analysts this year.

Still a few pieces away, this list of players gives them plenty of tools to trade for the pieces they need. If they strike out in FA, they can still get in on the trade market and make a big splash and the whole reason they can do that? Scouting and selecting the right players year in and out.

Is this thing on?

2011-12-08T19:23:00.000-08:00

So as Jon previewed the other day, the Winter Meetings were this week in Dallas. For those of you who don't know, it's a giant meeting with Major and Minor league officials, agents, players and MLB staff as far as the eye can see. For those of us who love the offseason, trades, free agent signings and hot-stove speculation, it's like a three day stay in Toys R Us for a kid. The Washington Nationals however, must have missed their invitation, it was very quiet out of the DC camp this year.

Despite rumors that they were in on Fielder, CJ Wilson, and Mark Buehrle, they came up empty. I thought Wilson was a great fit here, getting someone to balance Strasburg, and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation would have been a huge boon for the Nationals. Rumors abounded left and right about a possible trade for a CF, even targeting Adam Jones of the Orioles (which I suggested a few months back in a swap for perhaps Zimmermann, but without signing another frontline SP, that isn't going to happen.)

Now the Nats find them in the same position they were before the meetings, looking for a SP, CF, lead-off hitter and some depth. Talk emerged today about potentially shifting Werth to CF and opening up RF for Harper to start the season, but starting his clock at 19 years old could prove to be very expensive for the team down the road.

There are still a few lesser targets out there that make some sense for the Nats, Oswalt perhaps, who they have been talking to. Cespedes is still out there, and makes some sense here, however his cost has been skyrocketing with more teams getting in the mix, he could be a great gamble for the club though, especially if they don't end up signing any of the top tier FA. Paul Maholm could be a good fit here too, I think he fits better in the NL, and this could be a good home park for him. Two other guys that could make sense for SP depth are Brad Penny and Chris Young.

There are moves out there to be made, and with young talent still developing in the minors, adding without subtracting might be the best course for this season in order to give the young guys more chance to develop and see what they have. With Rendon, Harper, Cole and others getting some seasoning they are positioning themselves to contend for more than just a year or two, they just need to supplement their core with some good role players and veteran pieces and we could be seeing something really special come into play. As DC has shown numerous times recently (yeah I mean you Capitals), if you win, they will come. Once the Nats start winning they will become the trendy thing in town and the attendance and revenue will follow. Before that happens though, they need to start actually making something happen instead of just talking about it. The Angels were becoming the bridesmaids of MLB free agency always in the final talks, but never landing the prize...then they sign Wilson and Pujols within hours of each other. No one is thinking of them as 2nd place in anything anymore.

I hope Rizzo asked Santa for an alarm for Christmas this year, because he needs to wake up and make some things happen before it's too late.

Kicking Off the Winter Meetings

2011-12-05T06:00:00.000-08:00

Ted Lerner has quite a bit of money, Washington has potentially large streams of revenue, and the team appears willing to prime the pump with premier free agent talent.. The primary obligations of the team are Jayson Werth's potential train wreck of a contract and the solid contract associated with Ryan Zimmerman. They account for 25 MM this year and 30 MM next year. The club has a great deal of flexibility in their payroll.

However, with this flexibility the club has been largely saying no to many free agents. Jose Reyes was not sought after. Prince Fielder has been placed on the back burner. Mark Buerhle has also been dropped off the radar. I am not entirely sure where the Nats are going with this. The team is likely only a couple moves away from the playoffs and it is not clear how they are expecting to make that movement. The Braves are stuck in neutral, the Phillies' team is strong but the window is closing, the Mets are coming undone, and the Marlins will need a couple more pieces. The NL East is ripe for the taking. The Nationals are in striking distance.

Some of the improvement on the team will come from within. Several components of the pitching staff should be able to contribute more this year. Even if Strasburg loses a few mph, he is good enough to provide mid to top rotation value. Werth is not as base as he was last year. The team actually has reasonable options everywhere in the field except SS, LF, and CF. They could also use another starting pitcher. Those are the areas where they will need to focus their resources.

Yoenis Cespedes has been tied close to the Nationals. This would be a great fit for them. He is likely to be at worst serviceable in center field and that is a need. They would also need to improve upon Bernadina as a backup center fielder in case Cespedes needs time in the minors. Andruw Jones could be a decent plan B. Mike Morse might be fine in left with LaRoche going back to 1B healthy. There simply are no viable ways to improve SS unless they choose to spend big on Jimmy Rollins. For pitchers, we will see how things shake up.

Let us hope for an interesting Winter Meeting.

2012 Nationals: A brief overview

2011-12-02T14:00:00.000-08:00

Being a guy that focuses mostly on the rule 4 draft and prospects, I assumed my first entry would dig right in on that. There is so much to write about that I couldn't decide where to start, with all of the spending in the draft the past couple seasons and the excitement building in DC. Then I took a step back and realized maybe I should write about my personal view on the Nats first, since I am probably the exact demographic the team is looking for. I live about 10 miles from the White House, I have been a major student of the game, have played, and been following the Orioles closely since the early 90's.

Once rumors started flying that an MLB team was thinking about moving to DC and so close to home, you would think you would get excited to have a more true hometown team (Baltimore is 40 miles away). However, I actually cringed at the idea. This is not, and will never be a baseball town. DC is a football city first, and always will be, but it is a sports town, so there will always be some people to show up to games with the tag still on the team t-shirt they are wearing to pretend loyalty for a sport they don't even like. This group of people generally makes up 80% of all attendance for the Nationals right now. If you go to a game, there are more people in the stands in work clothes on their laptops, or their smart phones doing work than watching the game. This comes from a large corporate sponsorship in the DC area with companies that give free tickets to employees. While it puts people in the seats who may or may not actually be watching the game, it creates a very indifferent crowd which usually isn't sure when to cheer or jeer.

The stadium, while built in what us locals referred to a "don't ever go there" area is nice, there isn't a really bad seat in the house and much like New York, famous 3rd party eateries have been brought in to spice things up. Getting to and from can be an adventure because of the lack of parking at the stadium, but the metro that Baltimore lacks helps out with that.

As for the team itself, major strides in the right direction have been made for a couple years now. Young talent has been stockpiled: Strasburg, Harper, Zimmerman, Zimmermann, Rendon, Cole, Bernadina etc. and is beginning to be supplemented with big-name free agents: Werth, and rumors abound about Fielder and Wilson this offseason.

While there has been a stagnation in Baltimore that has gone on for 14 years, the Nationals seem to have gotten the memo and are building excitement. There are players worth buying a ticket to see, and hope that the team can win the division realistically. While I've never personally had any interest in the Nats up til now, my will to support the Orioles is growing weaker each horrible season, and the Nationals seem to know this and are trying to lure me away with promises of exciting players and playing for something after June.

While it is still a work in progress, at least there is real progress, enough to where 2012 or 2013 could be the year the Nationals emerge as a contending force. While a lot of the talk centers around the AL East and the spending that occurs, making it tough for rebuilding teams to ever get a foothold, one could say the same thing about the NL East. The Phillies are one of the top spending teams in baseball right now, with a rotation built to win. The Mets are starting a rebuilding phase, but they are one of the largest market teams in baseball, and will spend the money to get back in the race sooner than later. The Braves always seem to be in the hunt, through player development, even when you think they are going to be terrible they find a way into the wild-card race. Even the Marlins, the major-league feeder team for the rest of the league has a new stadium opening and is showing they want to spend money and get in the race.

I have no animosity towards the Nationals, and as the quality of product improves on the Anacostia, I find myself more and more interested.

Welcome to Our Exile

2011-11-19T11:06:00.001-08:00

Exile on the Anacostia is a blog written by writers who primarily write about the Orioles, but will focus on the Washington Nationals here.

Why?

Every writer has their reasons.